Key Outputs of the Model

High-level summary statistics include:

  • Counts of inpatient admissions
  • Bed-days
  • Outpatient and A&E attendances
  • Impact of activity mitigation assumptions

Because the model runs hundreds of simulations to generate a range of possible futures, the outputs are presented as distributions rather than point estimates. Some key visualisations of the outputs include:

  • Beeswarm Plots: These plots show the distribution of activity for each type of hospital service, allowing users to see the range of possible future activity levels.

  • S-Curve Charts: These charts display the cumulative distribution of activity over time, helping users understand the timing and scale of potential future demand.

Note: Where point estimates of demand are required by the user, these are generated from the average of all the simulations. This is known as the principle projection.